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Created: | Jun 03, 2022 at 4:19 p.m. | |
Last updated: | Jun 03, 2022 at 4:43 p.m. | |
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Abstract
Continuous, near-real time predictions of winter flooding are critical to protecting life and property while managing water resources for consumptive use of California’s Truckee River, in the northern Sierra Nevada. Rain-on-snow (ROS) events can lead to widespread flooding and are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with anthropogenic climate change. ROS flood severity depends on terrestrial water input (TWI), the sum of rain and snow melt that reaches land. However, an incomplete understanding of TWI generation mechanisms limit flood prediction by operational and/or research models. We examine how antecedent snowpack conditions alter TWI during 71 ROS events between water years 1981-2019. Observations from three weather stations within the Independence Creek subwatershed, across a 500 m a.s.l. elevation gradient, force SNOWPACK, a 1-dimensional, physically-based snow model, initiated with the Richard's Equation and calibrated with snow pillow observations. We compare observed `historical' and `scenario' ROS events, where we hold meteorologic conditions constant but vary snowpack conditions. Snowpack variables examined were: cold content, snow density, liquid water content, and snow water equivalent. Results indicate that historical events with TWI $>$ rain associate with the largest observed Sagehen Creek streamflows. A multiple linear regression analysis of scenario events suggests that TWI increases by 0.75 mm water for every 1 MJ decrease in cold content, highlighting the importance of integrated snowpack temperature as a rarely measured variable that could improve forecast models. As ROS becomes more frequent, enhanced observations of cold content could improve flood forecasting and reservoir management in ROS-prone mountain regions worldwide
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This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name | Award Title | Award Number |
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NASA Space Grant | NNX15AI02H | |
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at the University of California, San Diego | ||
University of Nevada, Reno |
How to Cite
This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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