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| Type: | Resource | |
| Storage: | The size of this resource is 48.5 MB | |
| Created: | Jan 29, 2026 at 5:32 p.m. (UTC) | |
| Last updated: | May 28, 2026 at 3:29 p.m. (UTC) (Metadata update) | |
| Published date: | May 28, 2026 at 3:29 p.m. (UTC) | |
| DOI: | 10.4211/hs.72d005cac62045bd96a36fb34a1a5cab | |
| Citation: | See how to cite this resource | |
| Content types: | CSV Content |
| Sharing Status: | Published |
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| Views: | 70 |
| Downloads: | 13 |
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Abstract
Unprecedented environmental changes challenge our understanding of the natural world, yet critical environmental decisions are made every day. Ecological forecasting provides a mechanism to inform science-based decision making amidst accelerating environmental uncertainties by using foundational forecasting principles to anticipate ecological unknowns. However, as an emerging and interdisciplinary field, ecological forecasting lacks unified terminology, limiting cohesion and hindering communication across other forecasting sub-disciplines. Here, we examined current use of common forecasting terms using a survey of forecasting professionals (n=109), and syntheses of literature trends (Scopus; 1970-2025) and internet search queries (Google Trends; 2004-2024). Results informed development of standardized definitions for “forecast”, “prediction”, and “projection” and illuminate a disconnect between the goal of aiding decision making and the inclusion of decision science in the forecasting process. This work promotes participation and growth in ecological forecasting, helping ecological forecasters meet priority end goals by facilitating communication across forecasting disciplines and within forecasting processes.
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| Name | Organization | Address | Phone | Author Identifiers |
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| Mostafa Javadian | Northern Arizona University | |||
| Cara A. Gallagher | University of Potsdam | |||
| Abigail S. L. Lewis | Smithsonian Environmental Research Center | |||
| Courtney L. Schreiner | The University of Tennessee | |||
| Beth M.Tuschhoff | The Pennsylvania State University | |||
| Alyssa M. Willson | University of Notre Dame | |||
| Jason S. MacLachlan | University of Notre Dame | |||
| Michael Dietze | Boston University | |||
| Jody A. Peters | University of Notre Dame | |||
| Laura Super | University of British Columbia |
How to Cite
This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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