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Excess mortality in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria estimated by persistent risk and time-series analysis

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Created: Mar 04, 2019 at 9:24 a.m.
Last updated: Mar 04, 2019 at 7:59 p.m.
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On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico, leaving widespread destruction in its path. The official death count for Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria was 64 excess deaths, but that controversial death toll has been debated by a number of academic and independent researcher journalists. With the loss of electrical power and telecommunication systems for much of the island, it was unclear how many deaths in Puerto Rico were an immediate result of Hurricane Maria's destruction as opposed to the access to care conditions that prolonged. Santos-Burgoa et al. applied a time-series analysis of the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics data to estimate the death count over time. To consider how many people died as opposed to emigrated away from Puerto Rico, two counterfactual assumptions were used, a Census-based scenario and a Displacement-based scenario for expected population change. Under the Census scenario and the Displacement scenario, the estimated death counts in Puerto Rico was approximately 1200 deaths and 3000 deaths, respectively, where the Displacement scenario was acclaimed as the preferred model.

Due to copy-right issues, the article and supplementary materials should be accessed at the source website. Please use the following reference citation and doi to redirect there:
Santos-Burgoa C, Sandberg J, Suárez E, Goldman-Hawes A, Zeger S, Garcia-Meza A, Pérez CM, Estrada-Merly N, Colón-Ramos U, Nazario CM, Andrade E. Differential and persistent risk of excess mortality from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico: a time-series analysis. The Lancet Planetary Health. 2018 Nov 1;2(11):e478-88.

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Coordinate System/Geographic Projection:
WGS 84 EPSG:4326
Coordinate Units:
Decimal degrees
North Latitude
East Longitude
South Latitude
West Longitude


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Related Resources

This resource belongs to the following collections:
Title Owners Sharing Status My Permission
Hurricane Maria 2017 Collection Christina Norton · Graciela Ramirez-Toro  Public &  Shareable Open Access
Hurricane Maria 2017 Collection Nathan Kim  Private &  Shareable None


Funding Agencies

This resource was created using funding from the following sources:
Agency Name Award Title Award Number
National Science Foundation Building Infrastructure to Prevent Disasters like Hurricane Maria 1810647

How to Cite

The Lancet Planetary Health (2019). Excess mortality in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria estimated by persistent risk and time-series analysis, HydroShare,

This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.


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