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| Type: | Resource | |
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| Created: | Jan 26, 2021 at 8:39 p.m. | |
| Last updated: | Dec 15, 2021 at 11:18 a.m. (Metadata update) | |
| Published date: | Dec 15, 2021 at 11:18 a.m. | |
| DOI: | 10.4211/hs.a8a33808c4de4852aff616a1b857d036 | |
| Citation: | See how to cite this resource | |
| Content types: | Single File Content |
| Sharing Status: | Published |
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Abstract
Globally, the number of people experiencing water stress is expected to increase by millions by the end of the century. The Great Lakes region, representing 20% of the world’s surface freshwater, is not immune to stresses on water supply due to uncertainties on the impacts of climate and land use change. It is imperative for researchers and policy makers to assess the changing state of water resources, even if the region is water rich. This research developed the integrated surface water-groundwater GSFLOW model and investigated the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources in the lower Great Lakes region of Western New York. To capture a range of scenarios, two climate emission pathways and three land development projections were used, specifically RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, increased urbanization by 50%, decreased urbanization by 50%, and current land cover, respectively. Model outputs of surface water and groundwater discharge into the Great Lakes and groundwater storage for mid- and late century were compared to historical to determine the direction and amplitude of changes. Both surface water and groundwater systems show no statistically significant changes under RCP 4.5 but substantial and worrisome losses with RCP 8.5 by mid-century and end of century. Under RCP 8.5, streamflow decreased by 22% for mid-century and 42% for late century. Adjusting impervious surfaces revealed complex land use effects, resulting in spatially varying groundwater head fluctuations. For instance, increasing impervious surfaces lowered groundwater levels from 0.5 m to 3.8 m under Buffalo, the largest city in the model domain, due to reduced recharge in surrounding suburban areas. Ultimately, results of this study highlight the necessity of integrated modeling in assessing temporal changes to water resources. This research has implications for other water-rich areas, which may not be immune to effects of climate change and human activities.
Subject Keywords
Coverage
Spatial
Temporal
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Related Resources
| The content of this resource references | Gardner, M. A., Morton, C. G., Huntington, J. L., Niswonger, R. G., & Henson, W. R. (2018). Input data processing tools for the integrated hydrologic model GSFLOW. Environmental Modelling & Software, 109, 41-53. |
| The content of this resource references | Harbaugh, A. W. (2005). MODFLOW-2005 : the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model--the ground-water flow process (6-A16). Retrieved from http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/tm6A16 |
| The content of this resource references | Markstrom, S. L., Regan, R. S., Hay, L. E., Viger, R. J., Webb, R. M., Payn, R. A., & LaFontaine, J. H. (2015). PRMS-IV, the precipitation-runoff modeling system, version 4 (6-B7). Retrieved from Reston, VA: http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/tm6B7 |
| The content of this resource references | Niswonger, R. G., Panday, S., & Ibaraki, M. (2011). MODFLOW-NWT, A Newton formulation for MODFLOW-2005 (6-A37). Retrieved from http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/tm6A37 |
| This resource is referenced by | Soonthornrangsan, J. T., & Lowry, C. S. (2021). Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region. Hydrological Processes, 35(12), e14440. https://doi.org/10. 1002/hyp.14440 |
| The content of this resource references | Markstrom, S. L., Niswonger, R. G., Regan, R. S., Prudic, D. E., & Barlow, P. M. (2008). GSFLOW - Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model Based on the Integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005) (6-D1). Retrieved from http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/tm6D1 |
| The content of this resource is derived from | LANDFIRE. (2008a). Existing Vegetation Cover Layer, LANDFIRE 2.0.0. |
| The content of this resource is derived from | LANDFIRE. (2008b). Existing Vegetation Type Layer, LANDFIRE 2.0.0. |
| The content of this resource is derived from | Natural Resources Conservation Service, Farm Service Agency, & Rural Development. (2016). Geospatial Data Gateway. |
| The content of this resource is derived from | Oregon State University PRISM Climate Group. United States Average Monthly Precipitation, Minimum Temperature, Maximum Temperature, 1981-2010 (800m; BIL). |
| The content of this resource is derived from | U.S. Geological Survey. (2016). National Water Information System data available on the World Wide Web (USGS Water Data for the Nation). |
| The content of this resource is derived from | USDA-NRCS, USGS, & EPA. HUC10 and HUC 12 Watershed Boundary Dataset for Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe, Niagara, Orleans, and Wyoming Counties, NY. |
| The content of this resource is derived from | USDA Soil Survey Staff. The Gridded Soil Survey Geographic (gSSURGO) Database for New York. . |
| The content of this resource is derived from | USDA Soil Survey Staff, & Natural Resources Conservation Service. Soil Data Viewer. Available online at http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/survey/geo/?cid=nrcs142p2_053614: United States Department of Agriculture. |
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