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| Created: | Oct 15, 2025 at 6:54 p.m. (UTC) | |
| Last updated: | Oct 15, 2025 at 7:56 p.m. (UTC) | |
| Citation: | See how to cite this resource | |
| Content types: | CSV Content |
| Sharing Status: | Discoverable (Accessible via direct link sharing) |
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Abstract
We developed long-term estimates of future river flows across the Upper Mississippi River Basin using the North Central River Forecast Center (RFC) modeling suite, in a project funded by the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (Kenney, 2022a). These data and modeling outputs are available at 269 NWS forecast points, and including eight historical reconstructions alongside 24 future flow projections spanning three future climate scenarios out to the year 2100. The NWS river forecasting system uses the Snow17 Model for snowmelt, Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, and Tatum routing scheme, in addition to RES_SNGL and RES-J models for reservoir operations. We used NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 v1 statistically downscaled climate data to force the NWS North Central RFC models to produce river flow estimates in response to future climate scenarios:
Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A. et al. NASA Global Daily Downscaled
Projections, CMIP6. Sci Data 9, 262 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4
Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A. Nemani, R. (2021). NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. NASA
Center for Climate Simulation. https://doi.org/10.7917/OFSG3345
Because the NWS RFC models were 6-hourly, we aggregated the daily NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data, and "downscaled" temporally to 6-hourly according to basic historical resampling methods.
These data are considered "raw" and have not undergone extensive analysis. Authors are in the process of writing up a manuscript reporting on future flow scenarios based on the data, and caveats and assumptions, which will included detailed quality checks.
Subject Keywords
Coverage
Temporal
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Content
readme.txt
The model files from the following downscaled models: For the following models: BCC-CSM2-MR CESM2 CMCC-ESM2 CNRM-ESM2-1 IPSL-CM6A-LR MIROC-ES2L GFDL-ESM4 MRI-ESM2-0 For the following scenarios: historical ssp245 ssp370 ssp585 Each model+scenario combo has a separate ~.tgz file that you must use 7zip to unzip first into a ~.tar, then into the CSVs for each of the 269 NWS forecast points in the study. Each CSV is labeled with the 5-digit NWS Location Id (LID) Time periods: anything outside this range in the files you will want to ignore: FOR HISTORICAL RUNS: 06-01-1950 12:00Z through 11-01-2014 12:00Z FOR FUTURE RUNS (ssp245, 370, 585): 06-01-2015 12:00Z through 12-25-2100 12:00Z Units of streamflow are cubic meters per second, on a 6-hourly timestep. You probably want to exclude the first year or so as a model spin up period. Also included is a directory with the RFC Simulated streamflow at each NWS LID using the observed historical forcings based on the NCRFC archive.
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Contributors
People or Organizations that contributed technically, materially, financially, or provided general support for the creation of the resource's content but are not considered authors.
| Name | Organization | Address | Phone | Author Identifiers |
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| CIROH DATA | CIROH | AL, US |
How to Cite
This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoCommercial CC BY-NC.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
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