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Long-Duration Flooding Driven an Atmospheric River Sequence Reveals Disproportionate Exposure for Socially Vulnerable Communities
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| Created: | Jul 10, 2026 at 10:10 p.m. (UTC) | |
| Last updated: | Sep 08, 2026 at 11:29 p.m. (UTC) | |
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| Content types: | Multidimensional Content Geographic Raster Content CSV Content |
| Sharing Status: | Discoverable (Accessible via direct link sharing) |
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Abstract
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme atmospheric river sequences and the likelihood of long-duration flooding in susceptible regions. At the same time, socially vulnerable communities often face disproportionate exposure to natural hazards, including those intensified by climate change. In this study, we simulate flooding in the high-elevation Truckee River watershed near Reno, Nevada, under a hypothetical future 30-day sequence of atmospheric rivers from the ARkStorm 2.0 scenario. We examine how flood hazard and socioeconomic exposure evolve over the course of the event and compare these daily conditions to those represented by more conventional static design floods. We find that flood duration changes the relationship between flood hazard and socioeconomic exposure. After the flood peak, streamflow and flooded area decline to levels associated with 5- and 30-year design floods, while socioeconomically vulnerable exposure remains comparable to that of a 125- to 175-year design flood. The remaining flooding during the flood recession becomes increasingly concentrated in densely populated urban areas. Socially vulnerable residents are disproportionately exposed to flooding throughout the event, and this disparity increases substantially among residents exposed for longer periods. Socially vulnerable residents were 5.6 times as likely to experience at least 10 days of flooding as non-socially vulnerable residents. Our results show that static design floods do not capture the accumulation of exposure or how disproportionate exposure evolves during a long-duration flood. Accounting for flood duration and social vulnerability could provide a more complete assessment of exposure from long-duration floods.
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This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.
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