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| Type: | Resource | |
| Storage: | The size of this resource is 46.8 KB | |
| Created: | Apr 28, 2023 at 8:34 a.m. | |
| Last updated: | May 01, 2023 at 1:38 p.m. | |
| Citation: | See how to cite this resource | |
| Content types: | Geographic Feature Content |
| Sharing Status: | Public |
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| Views: | 635 |
| Downloads: | 150 |
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Abstract
Globally, the number of people experiencing water stress is expected to increase by millions by the end of the century. The Great Lakes region, representing 20% of the world's surface freshwater, is not immune to stresses on water supply due to uncertainties on the impacts of climate and land use change. It is imperative for researchers and policy makers to assess the changing state of water resources, even if the region is water rich. This research developed the integrated surface water-groundwater GSFLOW model and investigated the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources in the lower Great Lakes region of Western New York. To capture a range of scenarios, two climate emission pathways and three land development projections were used, specifically RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, increased urbanization by 50%, decreased urbanization by 50%, and current land cover, respectively. Model outputs of surface water and groundwater discharge into the Great Lakes and groundwater storage for mid- and late century were compared to historical to determine the direction and amplitude of changes. Both surface water and groundwater systems show no statistically significant changes under RCP 4.5 but substantial and worrisome losses with RCP 8.5 by mid-century and end of century. Under RCP 8.5, streamflow decreased by 22% for mid-century and 42% for late century. Adjusting impervious surfaces revealed complex land use effects, resulting in spatially varying groundwater head fluctuations. For instance, increasing impervious surfaces lowered groundwater levels from 0.5 to 3.8 m under Buffalo, the largest city in the model domain, due to reduced recharge in surrounding suburban areas. Ultimately, results of this study highlight the necessity of integrated modelling in assessing temporal changes to water resources. This research has implications for other water-rich areas, which may not be immune to effects of climate change and human activities.
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Additional Metadata
| Name | Value |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.4211/hs.a8a33808c4de4852aff616a1b857d036 |
| Depth | 105 meters |
| Scale | 1 001 - 10 000 km² |
| Layers | 1 |
| Purpose | Groundwater resources, Climate change |
| IsVerified | True |
| Model Code | GSFLOW, MODFLOW, PRMS |
| Model Link | https://www.hydroshare.org/resource/a8a33808c4de4852aff616a1b857d036/ |
| Model Time | 2015-2100 |
| Model Year | 2021 |
| Creator Email | J.T.Soonthornrangsan@tudelft.nl |
| Model Country | United States |
| Data Available | Input and output publicly available |
| Developer Email | J.T.Soonthornrangsan@tudelft.nl |
| Dominant Geology | Siliciclastic sedimentary (sandstones, shales) |
| Developer Country | United States |
| Publication Title | Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region |
| Original Developer | Yes |
| Additional Information | N/A |
| Integration or Coupling | N/A |
| Evaluation or Calibration | Dynamic water levels, Baseflow |
| Geologic Data Availability | Yes |
How to Cite
This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY.
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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